Blaine school district sees small kindergarten cohort this year

The Blaine school district’s budget issues are looking even worse than expected, as its incoming kindergarten class is smaller than normal. 

Blaine school district superintendent Christopher Granger told school board members during a rescheduled board meeting October 4 that two kindergarten classes were consolidated due to a small kindergarten cohort. 

The fewer classes freed up two teachers, one of whom will cover for another teacher while on leave and the other will substitute, already contracted for the 2022-23 school year. But this comes as the district is already having budgeting issues and was projecting its budget on past kindergarten enrollment numbers. 

Overall, enrollment is down about 86 students from what was budgeted for this year, 43 of whom were in kindergarten. 

Granger said an over-budgeting of 43 kindergarten students cost the district an estimated $738,061. It would also mean a reduction in force (RIF) would likely be necessary in March 2023 to prepare for next school year, he said. That reduction could come from a staff member retiring or resigning.

Granger said 107 kindergarten students have enrolled at Blaine Primary School. With the significant decrease, the board will have to budget conservatively for next year, he said.

“We have some increase enrollment in the high school a little bit, so as enrollment averages out through the year, we will be able to tell exactly what it is,” Granger said. “But 107 is a small group for Blaine. That’s the smallest cohort they’ve seen in a long time.”

Kindergarten class sizes will total 20 students with the consolidation, Granger said. One teacher without a class will substitute, as the district is having a substitute shortage, and the other teacher will cover a leave position, Granger said.

“That’s why that budgeting thing is so important,” board president Dougal Thomas said. “We missed it by 43 students, and it’s about $700,000.”

Granger said kindergarten enrollment is down across Whatcom County, and generally around the U.S. He said if the district keeps having grade sizes of around 110 students, it would have a major impact through the system. Most cohort sizes vary from 140 to 160 students during early childhood education and decrease as the class gets to high school.

Washington school districts report official enrollment numbers to the Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI) on the first business day of October each year, which was October 3 this year.

According to OSPI data, Blaine’s kindergarten enrollment is down 54 students from its five-year average. The district’s average cohort size from 2015-16 to 2019-20 was 161.

Bellingham school district spokesperson Dana Smith said the district’s kindergarten enrollment has stayed relatively steady at 6-7 percent of its overall enrollment. 

Looking at enrollment from three schools in Bellingham, Alderwood, Cordata and Happy Valley, some schools have also seen significant drops this year. Cordata, specifically, has only 49 students enrolled in its kindergarten class, when it’s five-year average before the pandemic was 73 students. Alderwood and Happy Valley met their average or surpassed it. (Alderwood had an average of 41 students with 42 students enrolled in 2022. Happy Valley had an average of 64 students with 71 enrolled in 2022.)

Bellingham has a total of 11,672 students enrolled in its public schools, with 711 in kindergarten, as of October 3. This school year’s enrollment is up 1.5 percent from last year, but Smith said the district’s overall enrollment is down. It peaked before the pandemic, during the 2018-19 school year, at 12,068. From 2018-19 to 2020-21, Bellingham’s enrollment dropped by 4.3 percent.

Granger said he hopes for teachers who know they will be moving on to let the district know early, so a reduction would not be necessary.

“That’s the goal. Nobody wants to do a RIF action,” Granger said. “As we have movement, then we’d look to not fill right away. Which is what we are already doing.”